Jacek Jastrzębski, Chair of Komisja Nadzoru Finansowego, gave an opening address titled ‘Geopolitical turbulences: implications for the financial market and supervisory policy’ at the 15th European Financial Congress (EFC).

The full text of the opening address is provided below.

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Ladies and gentlemen

I would like to express my thanks to Prime Minister Jan Krzysztof Bielecki (Chair of the Programme Board of the EFC) and Professor Leszek Pawłowicz (Coordinator of the EFC) for the opportunity to share some of my thoughts as part of my opening remarks.

I would like to address, firstly, the uncertainty arising from geopolitical factors; secondly, its impact on the financial market and on the directions of Poland’s public policy, including supervisory policy, and thirdly, the topic of the project announced today aimed at reorganising the financial group comprising Powszechny Zakład Ubezpieczeń SA and Pekao SA.

(1) Uncertainty

I spoke about uncertainty from this place a year ago and I would probably not come back to this topic if it had not been for the fact that uncertainty has increased dramatically over the last year: The World Uncertainty Index has more than quadrupled over the past year and exceeded the pre-pandemic levels¹. Meanwhile, as estimated by the ECB economists, the uncertainty as to the global trade policy is now eight times higher than in 2021². There are multiple reasons for this, but the most important one seems to be a change in the geopolitical strategy of the United States and the way it is implemented.

What we’re experiencing is not only a temporary disruption; it’s a dramatic change in the way countries influence each other economically, financially and politically. 

This potentially has far-reaching consequences for the movement of capital and the international financial system. It cannot be excluded that for some countries, destabilisation of the financial system may become one of the tools to support their geopolitical interests. I don’t know how to best translate this word into Polish, but one element of this phenomenon may turn out to be, in particular, the so-called ‘weaponisation’ of financial markets, individual financial market institutions or critical components of the financial market infrastructure.

We must be prepared for a scenario where financial markets will become an arena for bitter rivalry between opposing countries on one hand and a tool of such rivalry on the other. 

(2) The impact of geopolitical turbulences on the financial market and on state policies (including the supervisory policy): response of national economies

Why do I pay attention to these global changes? The answer is simple: because they will be of great importance for the economy, including the financial market, in Poland. 

We are well prepared for these global challenges: our financial market is stable, banks are well capitalised, and the capital market has a high growth potential. The world notes and appreciates this, as demonstrated by, for example, the emergence of new strategic investors in the Polish financial market. Our financial sector is also creating organically innovative solutions: the success of the BLIK payment system, celebrating its 10th anniversary this year, is a spectacular example. I could give you more examples of firms, including KNF-supervised entities, which started out in Poland and now have become European players.

Never in its history has Poland been so close to the level of wealth of the most affluent countries in Western Europe. Poland’s GDP per capita at purchasing power parity has increased three-and-a-half times since 1990, while Hungary’s has only doubled, similarly to Slovakia’s, and Czech Republic’s – less than doubled. For comparison, in Germany it increased 1.5. times, just like in France. In fact, Poland’s GDP per capita at purchasing power has already reached approx. 80 per cent of the EU average, while in 1990 it was only 36 per cent. 

There are many reasons for this, but the most important are the successful structural transformation and Poland’s membership in the EU. It’s thanks to the access to the single market that the share of exports in Poland’s GDP has doubled over the past two decades. Polish firms have succeeded in joining global production chains, and Poland’s industrial production is now about six times higher than in 1990. Now we are beneficiaries of an open economy. 

This success is the outcome of the hard work of the entire society: for the most part of the post-1990 period, labour productivity rates were much higher than wage increase rates, and that was the largest difference among all OECD countries. Polish economy is strong, with a sizeable internal market and a stable, advanced financial market. 

It’s high time that Poland’s strength translated more into the directions of EU policies, including those related to the financial market. What I mean is that not only should we assess the policies coming from Brussels but we should also have our say on them. 

Europe is now facing a security crisis, geopolitical fragmentation and the reshaping of global alliances. Jean Monnet said: ‘Europe will be forged in crises, and will be the sum of the solutions adopted for those crises.’  The Union must respond to this crisis and the response should come mainly from Poland, a country that spends a record portion of its GDP on defence and is located on the eastern flank of NATO. We welcome projects such as the ReArm Europe initiative announced by the European Commission and the discussed proposal to create a European defence bank. We have experience in financing armed forces. BGK operationally manages the Armed Forces Support Fund . Why should a Polish institution not play a key role in the management of the arms fund for the whole of Europe? The KNF is declaring full support to the government and the market in this field.

The possibility of pursuing our legitimate ambitions will depend on the strength of our economy, including our financial market. I understand and support the arguments of those who, in the current circumstances, without denying the advantages stemming from an open economy, see the need for a greater participation of the State in the economy, including in the financial market. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has spoken about it recently, Prime Minister Jan Krzysztof Bielecki also speaks about it. It’s unquestionable. 

I would add that due to the current global situation, the active role of the State in the economy and the importance of the national interest – both in the economy as a whole, and in the financial market – are the topics which are being discussed more openly today. It’s a good thing. Komisja Nadzoru Finansowego is and will be a partner in those actions. 

In their recent reports about Poland, the IMF experts say: ‘After two decades of impressive convergence, Poland’s growth model needs to adjust to a new economic landscape.’³ I would add that it also needs to adapt to geopolitical turbulences. Moving forward: ‘[Public] policies should focus on deepening capital, facilitating resource reallocation, supporting an adequate labour supply, fostering innovation capacity, and decarbonisation of the economy.’⁴ How to implement those recommendations? How to respond to geopolitical turbulences? Last February, we heard a response from the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance, who set the directions of Poland’s economic policy: firstly, investments; secondly, investments; thirdly, investments. The response is absolutely on point. 

The next question is: why is the Chair of the KNF saying the same thing? Because there will be no big investments without a bigger and more effective financial market. In 2023, the assets of Poland’s financial sector accounted for 118.4 per cent of GDP – this does not match our ambitions or the challenges we’re facing. Many efforts to break this state of affairs are the domain of the government, but I want to assure you that the government has had and will have in the KNF a solid and open partner ready to cooperate. Because our statutory mandate also covers actions for the development of the financial system.  

For many months, we have been in a very intensive, open and productive dialogue in this area – first of all, with Professor Dariusz Adamski, the head of the Institute of Finance, who conducts a number of important and necessary initiatives in this area under the auspices of the Minister of Finance. 

I believe that over the next three days in Sopot, we will be talking to a large extent about how the financial sector, in particular the banking sector, can contribute to meeting these vital strategic needs of the Polish economy. And that we will be focusing more on that question, not only on solving the problems of the banking sector.

At the UKNF, we fully understand that the above-mentioned conditions are the reason we are in a special moment in terms of the pro-development role of the supervisory authority. We want to develop – in the Polish market, including the financial market – strong pan-European, and then also global, players. We absolutely need to avoid the peripheralisation of the domestic financial market, which could be a consequence of excessive supervisory or regulatory policies unable to keep up with the reality. This requires a wise – bold and responsible – supervisory policy from the financial supervisor. 

The pro-development role of the financial supervisor and the fact that our role is to lead the market on the optimal path that balances development and stability is something I have recently talked a lot in the context of deregulation. I won’t address that again now; I’m sure we will be able to address that during the panels and backstage. Now, first of all, I would like to emphasise that effective financial supervision is an asset and value of the financial market, an important benefit to it, not a burden for it. In the context of what I have said earlier, this is of particular importance today.

(3) Proposal to reorganise a group comprising Powszechny Zakład Ubezpieczeń SA and Pekao SA

Everything I have said before provides a good context to refer to the project announced today concerning the reorganisation of the group comprising PZU and Pekao.

Ministers Andrzej Domański and Jakub Jaworowski have just talked about the great benefits this project can bring not only to the Polish financial market, but also to the entire economy, including in particular the impressive increase in the ability of the financial sector to finance the needs of the economy. We know how much our economy needs investments and investment financing. We understand the importance of a large and active capital market which is based on the transparent principles of corporate governance. For my part, I would like to reassure you that we, as the financial supervisor, actively support and will continue to support the pursuit of the objectives mentioned by the Ministers. 

I’m very glad we’re actively involved in the consultation on this important project. In the spirit of everything I have said earlier, I think our main joint task is to work shoulder to shoulder for the development of our market – respecting, of course, the roles and responsibilities of each institution. And this is the task we take on with full conviction. 

Our role as the financial supervisor is, of course, first and foremost, to ensure a broadly defined regulatory compliance and the possibility of reaching the pro-development goals in a safe and smooth way that ensures protection and respect for the interests of all groups of stakeholders. Our current active involvement in the project gives us the opportunity to fully understand all the conditions and support the project leaders so that the project can be handled safely, without disruption or turbulence, and that all of its goals can be achieved.

That is why I am delighted, and it is particularly symbolic to me, that we are a reliable, competent partner for our key stakeholders, in both the public and market spheres . 

Why also symbolic? Because, first of all, since the very start of my mission at the KNF, this is how I’ve treated the ultimate role of the supervisory authority: both as an institution holding certain powers and as a competence centre willing to share knowledge, experience and its special role and mandate not only to ensure market security and stability – although this is our ‘Hippocratic Oath’ – but also to create value for customers, shareholders and all other stakeholders in this market in a well-defined, responsible manner. 

I can say, especially today, these are not only words but also actions. I believe that our commitment to a number of pro-development initiatives implemented over the last years and months, now culminating in the role that, thanks to the trust of our partners, we can also play in connection with the project to reorganise the PZU and Pekao group, fully authorises me to make such a statement. Acta, non verba. 

Allow me to thank my colleagues from the UKNF, who for over six years have supported me in the construction of such a financial supervisory authority which is strong not only by virtue of the formal authority of the official seal, but also by virtue of their knowledge, experience, skills and competence, and the courage to openly share them with the market, even if it is not easy. We still have a lot of work to do, but today I thank you very much.

Ladies and gentlemen 

The European Financial Congress is a special project which moves the capital city of Poland for three days to Sopot, to make room for an open discussion about the biggest challenges facing our financial market. As I’ve said in previous years, I consider my presence and willingness to talk to you here to be part of the supervisory mission. 

That is why this year, as in previous years, we will be here and together with you we’ll be looking for ways to face today’s challenges and to build a market that matches our dreams and ambitions. This is also in line with my vision of a supervisor who doesn’t sit in an ivory tower but is fully present in the market, acts in real time, with flexibility and pragmatism. And never sleeps, just like this Congress.

Let’s enjoy this time together and let’s use it as best as we can.

Photo gallery

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¹https://worlduncertaintyindex.com/
²ECB (2025), “Topic 2: The impact of a shift in US trade policies”, Introductory statement in three charts, 20 March, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/annex/ecb.sp250320_annex.en.pdf
³Poland: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2024 Article IV Mission, Oct. 17, 2024, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/10/17/CS-poland-2024
⁴IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article V Consultation with the Republic of Poland, Jan. 21, 2025, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/01/16/pr25004-poland-imf-executive-board-concludes-2024-article-ivconsult